Taking a Peek Out of the Closet

Hello world!

It’s been some time and I thought it’ll be good for me to come out and say Hi in the midst of this storm.

Hi

I haven’t really been blogging because there’s not much I’ve done in terms of wealth accumulation y’all know. Just the basic DCA, ETF, etc kinda stuff. Not much I could have written about and I’m not a really consistent bloke anyway (read my past posts and you’ll see all the broken promise I made regarding consistency..hehhee). 

BUT NOW!

With so much going on in the world and market right now, I thought it’ll be good to pen my thoughts and build some roadmap for the days ahead. Less emotional and more systematic way of investing, aka The Lazy Man style.

First up, some performance reporting. 

All in percentage of course, since it looks better on me given that value of my portfolio is so paltry compared to the titans I know.

At this point of time, I have lost 1.5% of my portfolio. Equities took a hit which was buffered by gains in bond and alt invest. Could have improved the performance if I had devoted more effort in options trading or shorting, but oh well, just too lazy to do so. Would rather spend the time with my kid or nua-ing.

With that cleared, let’s set some plans for the days ahead:

- Continue to DCA ETFs on the 2nd Monday of every month;

- Continue to buy $X worth of ETFs with every 7% dip from the last low;

- Continue to buy $X worth of DBS, OCBC and CapitaLand with every 15% dip from the last purchase price;

- Sell Guocoland if the price falls below $1.20 (If it falls to this level, the market probably thinks it doesn’t have the cash reserve to survive this storm and I’ll be getting out while I can.).

On a side note, I wanna appeal for everyone to be kind and just help out if you can la. Some people I know are really affected by the turmoil and I honestly do not think they deserve it. They are just being dealt a bad hand at this moment that could kick them off the table forever. Not a fair game to them seriously :(

So be kind guys!

Best Value Telco Plan for 300mins Talktime and 5GB Data

Halp! I have stopped blogging altogether but recently there's this tiny-weeny issue bugging me so I've decided to pen my thoughts down to have some clarity.

Soooooo my phone (iPhone 7) is dying and being the hippie that I am, I have decided to contribute to Apple revenue this year with the purchase of an iPhone XR.

So there I was in a dilemma; as I wasn't really sure if I should continue with a plan bundled with the iPhone XR, or move on with the current trend of getting a SIM-only plan and get the iPhone XR off the shelf.

So basically, I have only 2nos. of pre-requisite:
1. Minimum of 300mins talk-time
2. Minimum of 4GB Data

And with that, let's get down to the nitty-gritty comparison:

Contract Plan Bundled with iPhone XR

	Cost of 2-Year Mobile Plan	Cost of iPhone XR 128GB	Total Cost over 2 Years
StarHub $75 Plan  (300mins, 30GB)	$1800.00	$299.00	$2099.00
M1 mySIM 40 Plan (300mins, 5GB)	$1208.40	$815.00	$2023.40
Singtel Easy Mobile L Plan (300mins, 4.75GB)	$1560.00	$572.00	$2132.00

SIM-Only Plan

	Cost of 2-Year Mobile Plan	Cost of iPhone XR 128GB	Total Cost over 2 Years
My Republic Smart 35 Plan  (1000mins, 9GB)	$840.00	$1300.00	$2,140.00
Singtel SIM Only 5GB Plan (350mins, 5GB)	$744.00	$1300.00	$2044.00
M1 mySIM 20 Plan (300mins, 15GB)	$736.80	$1300.00	$2036.80

Eventually, I've narrowed my choice down to the Singtel SIM Only 5GB Plan due to the following factors:

- Monthly subscription cost of $31 is really low compared to the current $80+ that I'm currently paying;

- As the total cost difference between the comparison above is really quite negligible, I've decided to continue with Singtel as there are no hassle faced when changing telco, i.e. no added charges for changing telco or downtime faced when porting.

DONE!

Thoughts have been cleared and see you again in another year! LOL

P.S Shucks, I'm really bad with consistency as you can see from the frequency of my post.

A Peon Analysis - Starhill Global REIT

Hi peeps!

I'm back after close to a year hiatus in blogging. I've actually been away trying to create another stream of income which has failed rather miserably.

Oh well, that's a storey for another day. All I can say is that entrepreneurship is not an easy path to tread..

And so here I am! Back to blogging and being a corporate drone just like how you are :)

Today's blogpost is all about Starhill Global REIT, a holding I have held since... okay I've forgotten.

Anyway, I am looking into it again because it's current market price of $0.715 represents a loss of 11.18% from my initial buy price of $0.805.

                       

Ouch!

REIT Analysis Checklist  

Stockcode: P40U.SI

Financial Analysis

1) Is the Purchase price lower or equal to Net Asset Value Per Share (NAVPS)?

Remarks: Purchase Price=$0.720,   NAVPS=$0.91,   Discount=27.27%

	50% lower than NAVPS	40%-50%  lower than NAVPS	30%-40%  lower than NAVPS	20%-30%  lower than NAVPS	10%-20%  lower than NAVPS	<10%  lower than NAVPS	Score Awarded
Score	12	10	8	6	4	2	6

2) Is the Gearing below 36%? 

Remarks: Gearing ratio = 35.3%

	Gearing Ratio more than 40%	Gearing Ratio 36%-40%	Gearing Ratio 31%-35%	Gearing Ratio 26%-30%	Gearing Ratio 20%-25%	Gearing Ratio less than 20%	Score Awarded
Score	6	8	10	4	2	0	8

3) Loan profile. (No. and types of lenders,  loan maturity, interest cover ratio, loan denominated in which currency, etc) 

Remarks: A$63mil of loan due within FY18/19.  At current gearing level, Starhill REIT will be able to take on an additional debt of approximately $312mil.

Currently, loans are obtained from two different sources, namely the banks and Medium Term Notes.

The average interest cost currently sits at 3.14% p.a., with a interest cover ratio of 4.1x and overall average debt maturity of 3.8years. 87% of borrowings are on a fixed rate. Moreover, 73% of their property value are unencumbered which therefore provide Starhill REIT with a lifeline should they require to take on further loans.

Current cash and equivalent stands at $70.37mil (based on 3Q FY17/18 slides) in comparison to next refinancing of A$63mil due in FY18/19. It appears that Starhill REIT will be able to payoff the upcoming repayment of the A$63mil loan with their existing current assets.

	Strong	Neutral	Weak	Score Awarded
Score	5	2.5	0	5

4) Yield Per Year?

Remarks: Yield = 6.44%

	Yield more than 8%	Yield between 6% - 7.9%	Yield between 5% - 5.9%	Yield between 4% - 4.9%	Yield between 3% - 3.9%	Yield less than 3%	Score Awarded
Score	12	9	6	4	2	0	9

5) Any financial engineering involved to boost income?

Remarks: Starhill REIT properties in Malaysia are under a master lease scheme with one of their sponsor's subsidiary (Katagreen Development) and these properties generate 12.6% of the revenue based on FY17/18 AR.

	Yes	No	Score Awarded
Score	0	3	0

6)Are the foreign currency risk sufficiently hedged?

Remarks: About 37% of earning are derive out of Singapore, which does not form the bulk of earning. Moreover, these foreign denominated earnings are hedge by short term FX contract (derivatives) and similar FX denominated borrowings

	Yes	Not Applicable	No	Score Awarded
Score	5	5	0	5

7) Did the DPU improve for the last 5 years?

Remarks: FY2016-$0.0492   FY2015-$0.0518   FY2014-$0.076
                  FY2013-$0.05       FY2012-$0.0439   FY2011-$0.0412

	DPU improve for 5 out of 5 years	DPU improve for 4 out of 5 years	DPU improve for 3 out of 5 years	DPU improve for 2 out of 5 years	DPU improve for 1 out of 5 years	DPU improve for 0 out of 5 years	Score Awarded
Score	12	9	6	4	2	0	6

8) Is the receivables too excessive compared to ' Cashflow from Operations'?

Remarks: As of 3Q FY17/18, Trade receivables are at $7,793,000 while based on FY16/17 Annual report, Cashflow from Operations are at $141,144,000. Hence, receivables are 5.52% of cashflow.

	Receivables <11% of Cashflow from Operations	Receivables 11% to 20% of Cashflow from Operations	Receivables 21% to 30% of Cashflow from Operations	Receivables >30% of Cashflow from Operations	Score Awarded
Score	6	4	2	0	6

Fundamental Analysis

9) Quality of Management

9a) Any directors with political connection?

Remarks: None.

	Yes	No	Score Awarded
Score	2.5	0	0

9b) Any directors with banking background?

Remarks: Dr Francis Yeoh (HSBC), Mr Ching Yew Chye (HSBC).

	Yes	No	Score Awarded
Score	5	0	5

9c) Any directors with outstanding relevant experiences with respect to the industry in which the Company is involved in?

Remarks: Mr Ho Sing (Real Estate), Dato Yeoh Seok Kian (Building)

	Yes	No	Score Awarded
Score	5	0	5

9d) If the Company has operations overseas, does the Company have any directors well-acquainted with the oveaseas' culture?

Remarks: Dr Francis and Dato Yeoh appears to be well acquitted with the Malaysia market but otherwise, Starhill REIT does not appear to have any other Directors who are well acquainted with the Japanese, Chinese or Australian markets.

	Yes	Not Applicable	No	Score Awarded
Score	2.5	2.5	0	2.5

10) Quality and diversity of tenants

Remarks: I wouldn't think that the diversity of Starhill REIT tenants are particularly strong given that Toshin Development and subsidiaries of Starhill REIT sponsors occupy 36.5% of the total revenue. Other than this factor, there's nothing else to fault Starhill REIT on; the mix of retail stores and office space seems adequate.

	Strong	Neutral	Weak	Score Awarded
Score	2.5	1.25	0	1.25

11) Quality of lease (WALE, rental escalation, etc)

Remarks: I will only touch on the retail lease as the retails revenue occupy close to 90% of the total revenue.

Starting from FY18/19, there will be a further tenants' lease expiry of 28.4%, with a further 8.1% in FY18/19. This will be occurring during a period of oversupply in retail space.

In view of the current economic climate as well as the excess of retail space, I would not be expecting positive rental reversion for the next 1 year.

However, there is a bright spot in the sense that the master leases are all signed with a rather attractive upward only rental escalation clause.

	Strong	Neutral	Weak	Score Awarded
Score	2.5	1.25	0	1.25

12) Occupancy level (in comparison to industry average)

Remarks: Once again, I will only cover the retail portion as the revenue from the retails lease generate close to 90% of total revenue.

Overall portfolio occupancy stands at 98.1% as at 3Q 2017.

I will not be benchmarking against the industry occupancy given the number of countries (Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, China) that Starhill REIT operates in.

However, I believe that the current occupancy level at 98.1% is a very respectable figure.

	Strong	Neutral	Weak	Score Awarded
Score	5	2.5	0	5

13) Type and duration of property lease.

Remarks: I am unable to collect the information on the overall land lease expiry but generally, the Singapore and Malaysia properties have more than 40years of lease left, while it's Australia properties are all freehold.

	Strong	Neutral	Weak	Score Awarded
Score	5	2.5	0	5

14) Is the market sector in which the Company is involved in, currently on a uptrend, stagnant or on a downtrend?

Remarks: With the exception of Malaysia which is encountering negative retail sales growth, the rest of the market in which Starhill REIT operates are encountering positive low single digit retail sales growth (veryyyyyy low).

	Uptrend	Stagnant	Downtrend	Score Awarded
Score	2.5	1.25	0	1.25

15) Are the economies of the countries in which the Company has operations in, currently on a uptrend, stagnant or on a downtrend?

Remark: The economies of the major market that Starhill REIT operates in are facing economic growth in the low single digit (less than 5%) with the exception of Malaysia which grew at 5.8% 

	Uptrend	Stagnant	Downtrend	Score Awarded
Score	2.5	1.25	0	2.5

Total Score Awarded = 73.75 out of 100 Points

Looks like I will be holding onto Starhill REIT for a little while longer since its score of 73.75 is still within my threshold.

A Peon Analysis - Soilbuild Business Space REIT

I have never thought much of Soilbuild Business Space REIT (SB REIT) before.

However, I was chatting with another REIT investor a couple of days back and he mentioned that he saw potential in Soilbuild Business Space REIT (SB REIT).

Let me quote his exact words as to why SB REIT attracted his attention:

1) Founder of SB REIT's parent, Soilbuild Construction Group, has a pretty big stake in the REIT itself. Thus, his name is intricately tied to the Soilbuild name and substantially all his net worth. If Soilbuild fails, his entire empire he spent his whole life building comes crumbling down

2) Once the industrial sector recovers by 2019, its will rise easily to 70-75 cents

3) Not forgetting the 17% div for two years while waiting for the recovery

4) It's also underpriced compared to other industrial reits

5) Dividend will likely be maintained at current levels

Fwahhh. Once he said that, I took out my phone and googled for SB REIT and the first thing I saw was that its yield was an eye-popping 8.76%!

Waaa. I usually try not to be a dividend whore as much as possible, solely chasing yield only. But SB REIT is a damn attractive proposition with a yield of 8.76% and certainly deserve some degree of study man.

REIT Analysis Checklist  

Stockcode: SV3U.SI

Financial Analysis

1) Is the Purchase price lower or equal to Net Asset Value Per Share (NAVPS)?

Remarks: Purchase Price=$0.680,   NAVPS=$0.72,   Discount=5.88%

	50% lower than NAVPS	40%-50%  lower than NAVPS	30%-40%  lower than NAVPS	20%-30%  lower than NAVPS	10%-20%  lower than NAVPS	<10%  lower than NAVPS	Score Awarded
Score	12	10	8	6	4	2	2

2) Is the Gearing below 36%? 

Remarks: Gearing ratio = 37.5%

	Gearing Ratio more than 40%	Gearing Ratio 36%-40%	Gearing Ratio 31%-35%	Gearing Ratio 26%-30%	Gearing Ratio 20%-25%	Gearing Ratio less than 20%	Score Awarded
Score	6	8	10	4	2	0	8

3) Loan profile. (No. and types of lenders,  loan maturity, interest cover ratio, loan denominated in which currency, etc) 

Remarks: No refinancing required until 2018 and at current gearing, SB REIT will be able to absorb an additional debt of approximately $50mil.

Currently, loans are obtained from three different sources, namely the banks, Medium Term Notes, and interest free loan from sponsor.

The average interest cost currently sits at 3.37% p.a., with a interest cover ratio of 4.8x and overall average debt maturity of 2.8years.

86.5% of borrowings are fixed, with a weighted debt maturity of 1.9years.

Current cash and equivalent stands at $16.57mil (based on 2015 AR) in comparison to next refinancing of $155mil due in 2018.

Frankly, although the loan profile is not particularly worrying; it also does not install much confidence too. Of particular concern is the upcoming loan repayment of $155mil in 2018 where I am rather uncertain if SB REIT will be able to refinance at a lower interest rate.

	Strong	Neutral	Weak	Score Awarded
Score	5	2.5	0	2.5

4) Yield Per Year?

Remarks: Based on purchase price of $0.68 and 2016 DPU of $0.06091, Yield = 8.96%

	Yield more than 8%	Yield between 6% - 7.9%	Yield between 5% - 5.9%	Yield between 4% - 4.9%	Yield between 3% - 3.9%	Yield less than 3%	Score Awarded
Score	12	9	6	4	2	0	12

5) Any financial engineering involved to boost income?

Remarks: While not exactly a form of financial engineering, I discover that the multi-tenanted building, Solaris, which contributes to 26% to SB REIT income, is under a master lease structure. Under this arrangement, a subsidiary of the Sponsor, SB (Solaris) Investment Pte Ltd, acts as the master lease,  guaranteeing rental income to SB REIT with yield of 4.86% (after deduction of all property expenses) until Aug 2018, after which it might be subject to renewal, most probably with different lease terms.

Based on figures obtained from 2015 AR, the actual occupancy level of the Solaris is probably in the range of 97.4% instead of the 100% reported.

Despite a 3% annual escalation, I believe Solaris will be able to provide better yield than 4.86% if it is not under this Master Lease arrangement, due to expire by Aug'18.

Hence, it is of my opinion that this arrangement does not artificially inflate SB REIT's income.

It is also noted that another SB REIT property (Bukit Batok Connection), which contribute 9.2% to the gross rental income, is also under the master lease scheme with another subsidiary of the Sponsor, SB (Westview) Investment Pte Ltd. 

Under the master lease scheme, SB (Westview) Investment Pte Ltd will contribute $8mil per annum with a 2% annual rental escalation, for a period of 7years until FY2023. Based on the purchase price of $96.3mil, the annual yield of the property under this master lease scheme will be around 8.31%.

Due to the master lease scheme, the occupancy for Bukit Batok Connection has been artificially inflated to 100%. I am unable to obtain the actual occupancy for Bukit Batok Connection but I believe that with the current excess of industrial space, the actual occupancy should be somewhat lower than the 100% reported; thereby affecting the yield of 8.31% if it is not under the master lease scheme.

	Yes	No	Score Awarded
Score	0	3	0

6)Are the foreign currency risk sufficiently hedged?

Remarks: Incomes and Expenses indicated only in SGD.

	Yes	Not Applicable	No	Score Awarded
Score	5	5	0	5

7) Did the DPU improve for the last 5 years?

Remarks: FY2016-$0.06091   FY2015-$0.06487   FY2014-$0.06193
                  FY2013-$0.02270 (Only 2 quarters of distribution due to IPO) 

	DPU improve for 5 out of 5 years	DPU improve for 4 out of 5 years	DPU improve for 3 out of 5 years	DPU improve for 2 out of 5 years	DPU improve for 1 out of 5 years	DPU improve for 0 out of 5 years	Score Awarded
Score	12	9	6	4	2	0	4

8) Is the receivables too excessive compared to ' Cashflow from Operations'?

Remarks: As of 31 Dec'15, Trade receivables are at $2,436,000 while based on FY2015 Annual report, Cashflow from Operations are at $68,449,000. Hence, receivables are 3.56% of cashflow.

	Receivables <11% of Cashflow from Operations	Receivables 11% to 20% of Cashflow from Operations	Receivables 21% to 30% of Cashflow from Operations	Receivables >30% of Cashflow from Operations	Score Awarded
Score	6	4	2	0	6

Fundamental Analysis

9) Quality of Management

9a) Any directors with political connection?

Remarks: Although the founder, Mr Lim Chap Huat, is active in community service and has been conferred the PBM and BBM medals by the President, I am of the view that this does not provide much value-add to SB REIT.

	Yes	No	Score Awarded
Score	2.5	0	0

9b) Any directors with banking background?

Remarks: Mr Chong Kie Cheong (UOB, DBS).

	Yes	No	Score Awarded
Score	5	0	5

9c) Any directors with outstanding relevant experiences with respect to the industry in which the Company is involved in?

Remarks: Mr Michael Ng (Real Estate), Mr Lim Chap Huat (Property Development), Mr Eugene Paul (REIT)

	Yes	No	Score Awarded
Score	5	0	5

9d) If the Company has operations overseas, does the Company have any directors well-acquainted with the oveaseas' culture?

Remarks: No overseas properties.

	Yes	Not Applicable	No	Score Awarded
Score	2.5	2.5	0	2.5

10) Quality and diversity of tenants

Remarks: Only 2% of the gross rental income is derive from the oil and gas industry, which is under tremendous stress currently.

On another note, based on Q4 2016 presentation slides, I note that SB REIT has a very good diversified tenants base, encompassing tenants from a huge range of industry sectors with not a single sector contributing to more than 13% of SB REIT gross rental income.

	Strong	Neutral	Weak	Score Awarded
Score	2.5	1.25	0	2.5

11) Quality of lease (WALE, rental escalation, etc)

Remarks: Current WALE is 3.4 years and starting from FY2017, there will be a further tenants' lease expiry of 13.67%, with a further 25.3% in FY2018. This will be occurring during a period of oversupply in industrial/logistic space while enduring poor demand due to the slowdown in the manufacturing  sector.

In view of the current economic climate as well as the excess of industrial space, I would not be expecting positive rental reversion for the next 1-3years.

	Strong	Neutral	Weak	Score Awarded
Score	2.5	1.25	0	0

12) Occupancy level (in comparison to industry average)

Remarks: Portfolio occupancy stands at 89.6% as at 4Q 2016 while the industry average occupancy stands at 89.1% as at 3Q 2016.

While not an apple-to-apple comparison due to the different time frame, I believe that this is still a reasonable comparison as the time periods are near.

Hence, in comparison with the industry average, SB REIT occupancy is neither outstanding nor particularly weak.

	Strong	Neutral	Weak	Score Awarded
Score	5	2.5	0	2.5

13) Type and duration of property lease.

Remarks: With an average unexpired land lease of 44yrs and with more than 71.5% of the lease expiring more than 30yrs from 31 Dec'16 onwards.

At current yield of 8.96%, and further discounting it by 13.67% in view of the nos. of tenant's lease due to renewal in 2017, return on capital deployed will be between 12 to 13 years, thereby proving me with free money annually for at least 25 more years!

	Strong	Neutral	Weak	Score Awarded
Score	5	2.5	0	5

14) Is the market sector in which the Company is involved in, currently on a uptrend, stagnant or on a downtrend?

Remarks: Although industrial properties are facing some pressure from an oversupply (average 3.9mil sq ft of supply every year, estimated to last until FY2021), we have to bear in mind that such space only constitute  33% of SB REIT's portfolio.

On the other hand, business park properties (Eightrium and Solaris) constitute 33% of SB REIT's portfolio and there are no significant pipeline of business park space in the coming 5 years. Hence, there is possibility of an upside for business park space after this FY.

Therefore, although SB REIT is bound to be affected by the significant oversupply of industrial space in the coming 5years, it is somewhat mitigated by its 33% stake in business park space.

	Uptrend	Stagnant	Downtrend	Score Awarded
Score	2.5	1.25	0	1.25

15) Are the economies of the countries in which the Company has operations in, currently on a uptrend, stagnant or on a downtrend?

Remark: Singapore economic growth for 2017 will remain within the same range as 2016, which is in the low 1% to 3%.

1% to 3%? Bahh..That's stagnant to me.

	Uptrend	Stagnant	Downtrend	Score Awarded
Score	2.5	1.25	0	1.25

Total Score Awarded = 64.5 out of 100 Points

Not a particular strong indication for me to purchase SB REIT, given that it is only scores 64.5points in my analysis and I would much prefer to conserve my warchest at this point of time.

However, I will revisit this proposition again should it's share price drop to a level that is more appealing to me; somewhere in the range of $0.60 maybe?