A Peon Analysis - Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (LMIR)

Hihi! 😊

I am starting this blog series to document my analysis of anything (equities, bonds, commodities) that can make me more moolah!

Age is catching up on me and I'm getting desperate to be financially free!

Anyway, I thought of starting this series because ideas are constantly popping up in my mind on how to maximise my returns and yet I hardly pursue these ideas ultimately. Perhaps this series will encourage me to give more thoughts to my abstract ideas and increase my passive earnings!

Hokay. Enough of me yakking away. Let's have a look at this thought bubble which have been in my mind recently...

"Should I divest my LMIR holdings?"

To offer a brief summary, I actually got into LMIR during Year 2012 at a rather high price of $0.4075.

Fast forward 4 years later and we have seen its price dropped to $0.33 recently, representing a loss of 19.02%!

So now the questions to ask will be whether the drop is merely temporary due to factors not within the control of the company? Or is the drop due to deep seated structural issues with the company?

If it is the latter, I would want to divest immediately so as to cut my loss. 

However, if the drop is merely due to external factors that will vanish in time to come (currency fluctuation, cyclical nature of industry, etc), then I'll want to hold on to LMIR for a little longer.

As always, I'll start off with my analysis using my standard template:

Oooh.. looks like LMIR performance has actually improved compared to my previous assessment of it (click HERE to read my previous assessment)!

With all things being equal to my previous assessment, Distribution Per Unit (DPU) has actually increased from Year 2014.

Based on my standard template for analysing equities, LMIR has achieved an overall score of 63 out of 100, which is higher than my sell signal of 50 points and below. Hence, there is no compelling reason for me to sell it right now.

However, a score of 63 is not very high either and I may consider divesting LMIR should any of the following events occur:

• LMIR starts to acquire properties that are non-accretives, i.e.,acquiring properties that will actually reduce DPU to current stakeholders;

• LMIR offers private placement at a discount to current market price, thereby diluting the equities of existing shareholders (I'll take up any rights offer though);

• The incoming CEO replacing the incumbent CEO, Mr Alvin, does not provide a clear direction of how he/she is going to lead the company forward.

And this is it. I am done with my analysis and I hope I am right to hold onto LMIR.

Cheerio~

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Experiencing tranquility at Fo Guang Shan Temple, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.

 

Portfolio Updates: March'16

Ho Hum! Looks like someone has been really lazy recently. My excuses?

School, projects, wedding preparations and holiday trips to Taiwan and Genting!

Oh yea, March had been really enjoyable due to the holiday trips :D

But I am freaking broke now, with my spending account in deficit currently (read HERE on my concept of spending and savings account).

Luckily, my portfolio is not in deficit though and with the recent sales of Saizen REIT, I have in fact made a tiny weeny bit of monies :D

Hence, my portfolio has also grown by a tiny weeny bit for the month of Mar'16. Please see below! :)

Portfolio updates for the month of March'16:

• Received dividends from the following counter which was injected back into the portfolio:

         - Lippomalls REIT - $121.50

• Withdrew $400 from the portfolio for my personal expense (thou shall control my spendings with immediate effect!). 

• Sale of Saizen REIT completed and all gains from the sale was injected into the portfolio immediately. Got really lucky with this buy. I divested at a price of $1.056, netting me a net gain of more than 56% from an initial investment of $4890! 

         Tee hee hee, please allow me to bask in my glory

        

Actions I will take for April'16:

• If the price of STI ETF drops below $2.40, I will make another purchase of about $2400 worth of STI ETF. This will bring the average price of my STI ETF purchase to below $3.

• Continue my purchase of VWRD by investing my second tranche of S$5000 when the price of the VWRD drops to USD$54.72, which is a 20% drop from my last purchase price of USD$68.40.

• The third and last tranche of S$4000 will be vested when the price of VWRD drops to USD$38.30, which is a drop of 30% from the last purchase price of USD$54.72.

 

• I have to search for promising equities to purchase so that I can fill the gap in my portfolio that the sale of Saizen REIT has left behind. Hence, I aim to purchase about $3000 worth of income stocks and $3000 worth of growth stocks in order to meet the allocations that I have set out in my asset allocation strategy. For a start, I will begin with the assessment of OUE Hospitality REIT, Far East Hospitality REIT and Ho Bee Land.

• In the event that the VWRD and STI ETF does not drop to my target price, I will rebalance my portfolio in the month of May'16 and Nov'16 accordingly to my asset allocation strategy.

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Cherry blossom trees blossoming in Taiwan! Who says you can only get pretty cherry blossoms in Japan? :p